Data Science Blog

The first honest backtest of my revenue model produced a forecast that looked broken in a very specific way. For companies that were growing, the prediction would track the real numbers for a while and then simply stop climbing. It flatlined, pinned to an invisible ceiling, while the actual revenue kept going up and to the right. My first instinct was that the model was undertrained, or the features were weak, or I had a bug in the reconstruction. It was none of those. The mo